Showing posts with label One-child policy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label One-child policy. Show all posts

Friday, November 29, 2013

One Child Policy Reform Already Boosting Stock

In the opposite way that the dearth of copulating couples in Japan is having a crippling effect on the kiddie entertainment industry, a number of companies that cater for kids have seen their stock rise, giving the Hang Seng is biggest boost in two years.

One of the biggest problems has been that the retiring elderly don't have enough of the younger generation to take over their jobs.  The size of the retiring population prompted analysts to predict that there would be a drop of 3.25% of China's annual growth rate.  While the uneven population demographics have made China look like a developed country, China has little in the way of most developed countries social welfare, which, you can imagine isn't a good thing to have happen.

Writing on a blog post for China Gaze, Kirsten Korosec of Smart Planet also pointed out
The country’s one-child policy initially provided an economic boost. China’s working age population rose in the past 20 years, pushing up incomes and productivity as young people headed into cities to work in factories. But the share of working-age folks has since declined and is expected to fall between 2010 and 2030 nearly as fast as in Japan, the U.S. and other developed, rich nations.

Not awesome.  The good news is that as younger couples become wealthier, they are more inclined to have a second child should the reforms go through.  Of 26,000 Weibo users surveyed, the vast majority responded that they would have more children, law permitting, some of the responses to the proposed reform were pretty lukewarm, citing rising living costs and the raging property bubble as other worries to consider when thinking about becoming a parent.

 

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Wednesday, August 28, 2013

A Slow Death: Transitioning From Construction to Consumption

A shrinking labour force, an aging population and increasing problems with pollution are just some of the problems that China faces in moving it's economy from construction to consumption.

The main one being, of course, the demographic issues created by traditional believes that favour male heirs, and the massive shortfall in children that won't be able to fill all the jobs that their parents have.  The mess that has been created by policies that have focused on the short term won't be kind to the next generation
China faces a similar demographic time bomb. According to China’s Ministry of Education more than 13,600 schools closed in 2012. This is a result of the one child policy. Apparently the number of primary school students fell from 200 million to 145 million between 2011 and 2012. Remember, these school children are supposed to be the future taxpayers.

At the other end of the spectrum China has an impending social security crisis. The People’s Daily newspaper published an article recently warning the number of elderly could rise from 194 million in 2012 to 300 million by 2025.

The Chinese government's main priority has never been to create a sustainable economy.  Sure, it would like to encourage foreign investment, but only in order to placate a society which demands growth from it in all sectors.

Keeping in the working population happy is the number one goal, and this has been achieved through promoting the idea that turning against the Party will result in an economic and social apocalypse.  The CCP seems to have engineered it's own downfall - one that won't affect the current leadership, but the future looks less than rosy for the next generation.


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Thursday, August 15, 2013

The Economics of Relaxing the One Child Policy

CNN assesses what a relaxation of the one child policy would have on China's economy.  The policy, which sets out how many children a couple can varies depending on the exact circumstances of the parents, but the demographic impact has been dramatic, and for those who break the rules, the fines can be extortionate - a major money spinner for local governments.

China has gotten old before it has become rich, and the aging population means a shrinking workforce, a situation not helped by limiting the growth of the next generation is such an overt way.  Changing the rules now may not give the expected results that mandarins where planning on, however.

Qinwei Wang and Gareth Leather, analysts at Capital Economics, wrote this week that a higher fertility rate "will not provide a solution to the worsening demographic outlook in the coming decade."

For one, even if birth rates were to increase, it would take 15 years -- or more -- for those children to enter the labor force. Wang and Leather also point to evidence that a swelling labor force added less than a percentage point to average economic growth over the past two decades.

Balancing the needs of the aged with the demands of the economy might prove to be a bigger headache than anyone imagined in the People's Republic




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Saturday, August 10, 2013

More Korean Women Seek Abortions in China

The train wreck that is China's one child policy has meant that more more South Korean women are getting abortions in the country that ever before.

Abortions have been illegal in the South except in certain cases - rape, incest or severe birth defects.  More women are taking a quick trip to China, were abortion clinics are thriving thanks to China's strict rules on how many children a couple can have. Almost the polar opposite of South Korea's anti-abortion laws, forced abortions and sterilisations are not uncommon,

The legal situation in Korean regarding abortions means that even when the women aren't in the country, they are breaking Korean law.  In an interview with the South Korean daily, Chosun IIbo, an agent who arranges "abortion trips" said "Abortions are legal in China and using aliases removes any records. Chinese doctors are more skilled in abortions, due to their ample experience."  A package deal costs 200m South Korean Won (£116,000).

Seeing the amounts of money that can be made by the illicit trade, a number of South Korean doctors are jumping on the bandwagon along with their Chinese counterparts, often with little regard to the longterm health effects that their operations might have.  "It is very dangerous to make long trips while pregnant or after undergoing an abortion. An abortion in facilities lacking proper sanitary conditions could result in infections or haemorrhage, leading to infertility or even death," Cha Hee-jae of the Association of Pro-life Physicians told Chosun Ilbo.  Also, by travelling abroad, the women have little in the way of legal redress should anything go wrong with the operation.


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